UPDATE 2-Peru's polls split on presidential election
Thu Jun 2, 2011 4:50pm EDT
(Note: Election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior to June 5 voting)
* One poll shows Humala moving into first place
* Another poll shows Fujimori widening lead
* Markets volatile before Sunday vote (Recasts, adds CPI poll)
By Teresa Cespedes
LIMA, June 2 (Reuters) - Peru's presidential race tightened further on Thursday, with one poll showing left-wing Ollanta Humala moving into first place and another saying right-wing Keiko Fujimori was widening her lead before Sunday's run-off election.
An Ipsos poll obtained by Reuters early in the day sent financial markets soaring on news that the daughter of jailed former President Alberto Fujimori had extended her lead to 2.2 percentage points from 1 point over the weekend.
Peru's main stock index .IGRA rose more than 7 percent and the sol PEN=PEN currency gained 1 percent against the dollar as investors cheered what they thought were improving prospects for Fujimori, who is supported by the business community in the fast-growing economy. [ID:nN02283807]
The latest Ipsos poll of 3,000 people has a margin of error of 1.8 percent and said Fujimori was at 51.1 percent to Humala's 48.9 percent. It was conducted May 28-June 1.
Investors credit Fujimori's father with opening the economy to trade and slaying hyperinflation in the 1990s, before his government collapsed in a cloud of corruption and human rights crimes stemming from a crackdown on insurgents.
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Key political risks to watch in Peru [ID:nRISKPE]
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As market were closing late in the day, a CPI poll showed Fujimori had lost the lead she had in an earlier reading by the pollster and was trailing Humala, a former army officer, by 1 percentage point. The CPI poll of 2,200 people showed Humala at 50.5 percent and Fujimori at 49.5 percent, but that lead was within the margin of error of 1.8 percentage point. The latest CPI poll was conducted June 1-2.
Humala has tried to distance himself from his one-time political mentor, Venezuela's socialist President Hugo Chavez, and persuade Wall Street investors he would keep free-market economic policies in place.
Pollsters say about 10 percent of voters will abstain or spoil their ballots, and the candidates are battling for a small sliver of undecided voters to swing the outcome.
(Reporting by Teresa Cespedes; Editing by Eric Walsh)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/02/peru-election-poll-idUSN0229651420110602
About Me
- Ricardo V. Lago
- Spain
- Economist and University Professor. Former senior official of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development , the World Bank , the Inter-American Development Bank , and the Ministry of Finance of Mexico. Some of my research articles can be found at : http://rlago-articlesonline.blogspot.com
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5 comments:
Hola Ricardo:
Creo que Keiko ganará, pero me preocupa que la onpe finalmente demorará dias en darnos esa certidumbre. La verdad me preocupan las encuestas, no puedo negar que el voto de indecisos mas el voto oculto puedan inclinar la balanza a cualquiera, cosa que hace una semana no era algo tan claro. Mi pregunta sería ¿que crees que pasará con el mercado la próxima semana si los resultados no son claros?
Ricardo, sigues pronosticando un 55-45 a favor de KF?
Sr. Lagos,
¿Cómo las últimas encuestas publicadas en Reuters modifican el pronóstico de su modelo de transición?
¿Tiene algún indicio para pensar en una reversión del ranking a favor de Humala?
Estimado Sr. Lago:
Si bien no tengo motivos para dudar de Reuters, si comparto algunas preocupaciones por sus fuentes, no las encuestadores per se, sino quienes divulgan los datos (creando pánico para comprar barato).
De las últimas encuestas publicadas, la única encuesta cuyos resultados me constan son los correctos es la de Ipsos Apoyo (http://es.scribd.com/doc/56946329/Confidencial-), encargada por la Confiep.
Si algo he podido notar es que hasta ahora ninguna encuestadora le dá más de 43.9% de los votos emitidos a OH. Es por eso que creo que en las encuestas en que le gana a KF (CPI e IOP), se debe no a un repunte de Humala sino a una supuesta caída de Fujimori en términos relativos (los resultados que publica Reuters son solo sobre votos válidos). Teniendo en cuenta que el máximo histórica para ella es de 46.9% y ultimamente ninguna encuestadora le da por debajo de 44% (a excepción de Imasen), sumado a los votos del extranjero (hechas las sumas y restas creo que le darán alrededor de 1 punto neto de ventaja a Keiko sobre los votos emitidos), creo que será la ganadora.
P.D creo que vale resaltar que la última encuesta de CPI fue encargada por Gana Perú, sobre las de Datum e IOP no tengo información.
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